Solana (SOL) has fallen 9.34% over the past seven days to approximately $107, as seven consecutive trading days of reported ETF outflows and weakening technical indicators precede the blockchain’s October 21 Alpenglow upgrade.
Summary
- Solana traded near $107 after losing 9.34% over seven days, according to supplied market data.
- Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled for October 21, targeting transaction finality of 150 milliseconds.
- Solana ETFs recorded $1.04 million in net outflows on October 13, according to SoSoValue figures.
- Technical indicators place immediate SOL support near $105, with stronger selling risks below $100 emerging.
- Crypto Patel identified $125 and $150 as potential recovery targets, conditional on bullish confirmation signals.
According to CoinGecko, SOL traded near $107 at press time, with approximately $2.86 billion in daily trading volume and a market capitalization of $63.02 billion. The decline comes as the Solana Foundation prepares to activate Alpenglow, an upgrade designed to reduce transaction finality from approximately 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.
Despite the approaching launch, SOL remains below important resistance levels around $110 and $115.
Solana price outlook weakens ahead of Alpenglow upgrade
Solana has struggled to maintain its recovery after retreating from late-September highs near $123. The cryptocurrency previously rebounded from August lows around $75, but the latest decline has weakened its short-term price structure.
During the October 14 trading session, SOL hovered around $107.06 after opening near $106.72. Its daily chart recorded an intraday high of $108.20 and a low of $106.68, placing the cryptocurrency close to immediate support between $104 and $105.
Solana remains below its 20-day simple moving average of $115.83. The Bollinger Bands place the upper boundary at $127.20 and the lower boundary at $104.45, with SOL trading closer to the lower end of the range.
A sustained decline below $104.45 could expose the psychological $100 support level. If selling continues below that threshold, the analysis identifies $95–$98 as the next possible support area.
For a recovery, SOL would need to reclaim $110 before approaching stronger resistance near $115.83. Moving above the 20-day average would improve the short-term technical structure, while $120–$123 remains another resistance zone.
The Relative Strength Index stood at 41.58, below its moving average of 52.41. The indicator’s position below 50 suggested that selling pressure remained stronger than buying momentum, although SOL had not reached the conventional oversold level of 30.
Analyst Crypto Patel identified a similar downside risk on the eight-hour chart. He said SOL had broken below its local price structure and remained under resistance around $112.39.
His analysis placed a potential buying zone between $103 and $96, with particular attention on $95.63–$101.27. The analyst suggested that a decline into this region could precede another recovery if SOL establishes a higher low and confirms a bullish reversal.
Patel identified $125 and $150 as possible upside targets after such confirmation. However, he warned that sustained trading below $95.63 would invalidate his proposed bullish setup.
Solana Alpenglow upgrade scheduled for October 21
While SOL faces selling pressure, the network is preparing for one of its largest technical changes since its launch.
The Solana Foundation confirmed that Alpenglow is scheduled to activate during epoch 1064, beginning around 15:00 UTC on October 21. The upgrade will replace TowerBFT, the consensus mechanism Solana has used since 2020. Its new voting system, Votor, targets transaction finality of approximately 150 milliseconds, compared with the current 12.8 seconds.
Transaction finality refers to the point at which a blockchain transaction can no longer be reversed under the network’s consensus rules. Although Solana transactions can appear successful almost immediately, applications currently wait longer for stronger confirmation that settlement is complete.
Alpenglow is designed to reduce that waiting period by changing how validators reach agreement. Instead of submitting voting transactions to the blockchain, validators will exchange votes directly and combine sufficient approvals into certificates that finalize blocks.
According to the Foundation, the upgrade will not change how ordinary transactions execute. Wallets and decentralized applications are expected to continue operating through the transition.
The activation process includes a temporary period during which Solana will continue using TowerBFT for the first 5,000 slots of epoch 1064. Alpenglow will then take over approximately 18 minutes after the epoch begins.
Validator operators must prepare before the activation by using software built on Agave 4.3.0. The Foundation said Firedancer and Frankendancer will not support the initial migration, requiring operators using those clients to switch temporarily.
Another operational change concerns validator expenses. Existing voting transaction costs of approximately 1 SOL per epoch will be replaced with a 0.8 SOL Validator Admission Ticket fee, paid from each validator’s vote account.
The upgrade could change how Solana’s network statistics appear. Because voting transactions will no longer be recorded inside blocks, reported transaction counts may decline even if ordinary user activity remains unchanged.
Earlier Solana Alpenglow development and testing established the network’s October target after developers completed preparatory work through Agave 4.2.
The Foundation has confirmed the activation date, although its 150-millisecond finality target remains dependent on actual network performance following the upgrade.
Solana ETFs record seven consecutive days of outflows
Institutional investment data has provided another source of concern ahead of Alpenglow.
According to the supplied SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded approximately $1.04 million in net outflows on October 13. The latest negative session extended a reported streak of seven consecutive trading days of withdrawals.
The October 13 figures placed cumulative net inflows at approximately $1.58 billion, while total net assets stood near $1.71 billion. Trading volume across the tracked products reached $64.26 million during the session.
The daily net outflow means investors withdrew more capital from the funds than they invested during the reporting period. The figure does not establish that every individual fund experienced withdrawals.
Despite the recent negative flows, cumulative inflows remained positive, indicating that the products had attracted more capital than they had lost since their respective launches.
The reported seven-day streak occurred as SOL declined over the previous week, although the available information does not establish whether ETF redemptions caused the price weakness.
With Alpenglow scheduled for October 21, subsequent ETF flow reports will provide further data on institutional demand before the network activates its new consensus system.
Can Solana recover to $150 after the upgrade?
The technical outlook remains divided between weakening daily indicators and analysts monitoring a possible recovery from lower support.
Crypto analyst Sweep reported a bullish divergence on SOL’s chart, suggesting that selling momentum could be weakening despite the recent price decline.
The analyst compared the formation with an earlier divergence that preceded a 30% price rally. However, the comparison does not establish that Solana will repeat the previous performance.
The supplied daily indicators continued to favor caution. SOL remained below its 20-day moving average, while the RSI at 41.58 suggested that buying pressure had not recovered sufficiently to reverse the prevailing short-term weakness.
Patel’s outlook identified $113 as immediate resistance, followed by possible recovery targets at $125 and $150. His bullish scenario requires a confirmed improvement in market structure after a potential decline into the $96–$103 demand region.
A move above $110 would provide an initial indication of improving momentum, while reclaiming $115.83 would place SOL back above its 20-day moving average. Failure to maintain $104–$105 support would leave $100 exposed.
The Solana Foundation’s October 21 activation schedule identifies epoch 1064 as the starting point for Alpenglow. Validators must complete their software migration before that epoch begins and maintain at least 0.8 SOL above the rent-exempt minimum in their vote accounts.
The Foundation has provided a network verification method through the getAgGenesisCert RPC command, which returns the Alpenglow genesis certificate once migration is complete. Before activation, the command returns null, indicating that the network continues operating under TowerBFT.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
