Bitcoin has fallen as much as 16.8% from its September high, as Bitfinex analysts have warned that weak spot buying and stubborn leverage could turn its correction into a deeper decline.
Summary
- $2.22 billion has left US spot Bitcoin ETFs across eight sessions since Oct. 30.
- Futures positions grew while Bitcoin fell, leaving leveraged traders exposed to another round of liquidations.
- Nov. 22 is Bitfinex’s two-week checkpoint for Bitcoin to recover its short-term holder cost basis.
In its Nov. 11 midweek update, Bitfinex Alpha put the main recovery hurdle at $75,717, the average purchase price of coins held for fewer than 155 days. Bitcoin had spent four days consistently below that level after falling to $72,706 following the US inflation report.
The analysts expect holders to sell into rallies approaching breakeven until fresh spot demand returns. Their report estimates that 1.6 million BTC bought between $75,000 and $80,000 is now underwater.
Bitcoin’s recovery depends on buyers returning
US spot ETFs lost $201 million on Nov. 9 and $95 million on Nov. 10, according to Farside Investors. Across the eight sessions beginning Oct. 30, net withdrawals totaled $2.22 billion, which Bitfinex described as the largest such outflow since July 2.
Although daily withdrawals have eased, the report says earlier outflow runs this year were followed by a median 6.4% gain over 10 sessions only when they ended with at least three consecutive inflow sessions.
Calculated from Farside’s figures, withdrawals on Nov. 10 were 52.7% smaller than the previous session. The same eight-session table shows BlackRock’s IBIT lost roughly $1.73 billion, equivalent to 77.9% of the category’s net withdrawals.
Corporate treasuries are no longer filling the gap, the analysts said. Despite Strategy buying 1,036 BTC between Nov. 2 and Nov. 8, Bitfinex found that corporate demand was insufficient to offset ETF selling, citing MARA’s disclosed sales and possible selling by other treasury holders.
Traders keep rebuilding leverage during declines
According to the update, futures open interest rose 3.3% to 701,900 BTC between Nov. 8 and Nov. 11 while Bitcoin’s price fell 2.6%. Open interest measures outstanding futures contracts; the report expressed the total in BTC to track positioning without dollar-price changes obscuring the comparison.
Following the CPI release, open interest fell just 0.2% despite approximately $729 million in liquidations, including $581 million in longs. Bitfinex interpreted the small change as evidence that traders were replacing closed positions almost immediately.
The pattern predates this week. As crypto.news previously reported, futures exposure grew despite falling prices between Oct. 12 and Oct. 15, prompting an earlier Bitfinex warning about another liquidation wave.
During the latest decline, perpetual funding remained near 11% annualized, the analysts said, indicating that traders continued paying to hold long positions.
“Such behaviour also leaves the market exposed to further long liquidations,” Bitfinex Alpha wrote.
Nov. 22 separates a quick recovery from a longer reset
The report examined 14 occasions since 2016 when Bitcoin fell below its short-term holder cost basis after spending at least 60 days above it. In 11 cases, the price recovered the level within two weeks.
The other three recoveries took between 57 and 114 days. During those episodes, Bitcoin’s lowest price over the following 90 days was 17%–35% below the cost basis, according to the analysis.
With the current break dating from Nov. 8, Bitfinex places the two-week checkpoint on Nov. 22. A recovery above $75,717 alongside three consecutive ETF inflow sessions would support its correction scenario.
Selling has remained less intense than during the May–July decline, the report found. Net realized losses totaled approximately 172,700 BTC across 12 consecutive days through Nov. 10, averaging 14,400 BTC daily against 45,000 BTC during the earlier selloff.
Among recent buyers, coins sold on Nov. 10 changed hands at an average loss of roughly 1%, Bitfinex said. Its on-chain figures show 762,000 BTC acquired between $70,000 and $75,000, up by 233,000 BTC between Nov. 8 and Nov. 11. The analysts said a sustained recovery would require underwater holders to stop selling as prices approach their purchase levels.
Equity rebounds have offered Bitcoin limited relief
Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempts have been brief. Its return above $80,000 on Nov. 4 coincided with $378 million in hourly crypto short liquidations, while the Nov. 10 inflation release subsequently brought trading below $74,000.
Over the 25 sessions following the Nasdaq 100’s Oct. 6 record, Bitfinex calculated that Bitcoin captured 91% of the index’s losses on down days but only 58% of its gains on up days. Across the preceding 60 sessions, those figures were 23% and 129%.
On Nov. 9, the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.4%, while Bitcoin stood 0.7% below its price at the previous equity close, according to the report.
