Deutsche Bank has added a January interest rate hike to its forecast after October’s hotter-than-expected US inflation report, putting three consecutive quarter-point moves on its expected path through March 2027.
Summary
- Deutsche Bank now expects quarter-point Fed hikes in December, January and March, reaching 4.50%–4.75%.
- October consumer prices rose 0.4%, while core inflation held at 0.3% for a third month.
- US Bitcoin and Ether ETFs lost a combined $1.65 billion during November’s first trading week.
- Bitget Wallet analysts have tied a lasting Bitcoin recovery to stronger spot demand and ETF inflows.
Reuters reported on Nov. 10 that the bank had added January to its previous call for December and March hikes, citing a research note issued after the inflation release. The revision puts another 25 basis points of tightening into its forecast as cryptocurrency investors contend with persistent fund withdrawals.
Deutsche Bank’s Fed forecast puts rates at 4.50%–4.75%
The bank expects each of the next three meetings to produce a 25-basis-point hike, according to Seeking Alpha’s coverage. Its projected destination is a federal funds target range of 4.50%–4.75%.
Starting from the current 3.75%–4.00% range, three quarter-point moves would add 75 basis points. The implied ranges would be 4.00%–4.25% after December, 4.25%–4.50% after January and 4.50%–4.75% after March, if the Fed follows that sequence.
A larger December move remains outside the bank’s central forecast. In its Nov. 10 report, Reuters said Deutsche Bank did not rule out a half-point hike after comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, but continued to favor a smaller step.
Waller had raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point move if inflation remained strong, according to the report. Deutsche Bank’s forecast is its economists’ assessment; the Federal Open Market Committee has yet to make those decisions.
The Fed’s meeting calendar places its final 2026 meeting on Dec. 8–9, with updated economic projections scheduled alongside the decision. The committee holds eight regular meetings each year, so consecutive decisions do not necessarily fall in consecutive calendar months.
October inflation slows but core prices remain firm
The official release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, following September’s 0.6% gain. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 0.3%.
Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month. Shelter costs climbed 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall monthly gain, while food rose 0.5% and energy advanced 0.7%.
The report contained no annual headline or core inflation reading because the agency lacked the October 2025 observations needed for comparison after last year’s government shutdown.
Bitcoin fell below $74,000 following the release, as crypto.news previously reported. At that report’s Nov. 10 snapshot, BTC traded around $73,784, down approximately 1% over 24 hours, with weekly losses of 4.5%.
November’s CPI release is scheduled for Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to the BLS, one day after the December policy decision. The October figures therefore represent the latest monthly CPI report scheduled to be available before that meeting.
Bitcoin ETF withdrawals predate the revised rate call
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net withdrawals during Nov. 2–6, while Ether funds lost $365.2 million, according to Farside figures cited in coverage of the first November trading week.
BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for roughly $1.21 billion of the Bitcoin withdrawals. Fidelity’s FBTC received $93.1 million over the same period, showing that investors’ decisions differed across funds even as the category finished deeply negative.
In comments included in that coverage, Global Settlement Network co-founder and CEO Ryan Kirkley said institutional allocations continued to depend on liquidity, monetary policy and portfolio decisions. He cautioned against treating one positive session as proof that selling had ended.
AMINA Bank’s head of derivatives trading, Andreja Cobeljic, identified renewed Ether ETF buying as a demand signal. He distinguished ETF subscriptions from futures positioning, which can involve arbitrage without an outright bet on rising prices.
Crypto analysts look for spot buying after the leverage reset
Bitget Wallet analysts said the selloff had removed speculative excess but lacked the fresh buying needed for a lasting recovery, according to comments published Nov. 10.
They identified $73,000–$74,000 as support and tied stabilization to more balanced derivatives positioning and sustained positive ETF flows. Reclaiming $80,000 would signal stronger demand in their assessment; a decisive break below $73,000 could expose $68,000.
CoinShares managing director Marc des Ligneris described continued caution in options positioning in the same coverage: “investors are still paying up to hedge.”
