In a shocking move that has defused a brutal trade war and boosted international markets, the United States and China decided on May 12, to significantly reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for the first 90 days.
This naturally sparked a continued downward spiral in gold and prices touched $3121 for XAUUSD.
This week, gold is looking to retrace and take out the late sellers in the market. Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast of May 19th to May 23rd, 2025.
Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news
In the previous week’s forecast we gave the selling level of gold in 1h, from where gold dumped 1420 points.
We also shared a major buying level of gold in the weekly FVG, from which gold is up 827 points, at the time of writing.
Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.
Key economic events of this week
Not many significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, but it is still expected to impact XAUUSD.
May 22nd, Thursday: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) and Flash Services PMI
Two early measures of economic health are the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI. They have the following effects on the gold vs. US dollar (XAU/USD) pair:
- Strong PMIs (Manufacturing + Services): Show economic expansion, which boosts the US currency and usually results in lower gold prices (a decline in XAU/USD).
- Weak PMIs: Indicate a slowdown in the economy, which devalues the US dollar and raises the price of gold (XAU/USD).
In summary, while negative PMI data can push gold prices higher, positive data tends to push them lower.
Gold HTF Overview
Gold has already tested its weekly FVG and closed above it, which is a bullish sign for gold. The next targets according to the weekly timeframe can be $3260 and $3328.86 which signify the untested lows and highs of the previous weekly candles.
Gold Forecast for May 19th to May 23rd
Gold is showing bullish momentum in all lower time frames which makes buying an ideal position to enter and hold.
On the 1 hour timeframe the strongest buying level is coming up at the bullish order block of $3129.85-3152.56.
On the 4h timeframe the buying opportunity is much lower around $3098-$3038. This is also the the last daily FVG of this entire bullish rally for which the low is $2956 which can be your invalidation point for buys and flipping towards sells on retracement, but that is far away for now.
In the 4 hour timeframe selling can be expected from the $3284-3325 levels, due to FVG, and structure area of the 4h timeframe.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
Below, we’ll take a look at support and resistance levels for XAUUSD this week.
Support Levels
- $3098-$3038 – 4h support, daily FVG
- $3129.85-3152.56 – 1h bullish order block
Resistance Levels
- $3284-3325 levels – 4h FVG and structure level
To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for sells in the lower time frame levels and look for buying in the higher time frame levels. You can mark these levels on your chart for easier trading guidance when you trade.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
