Prices for Litecoin, Dogecoin, Solana, and XRP are in the green after analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas released their ETF approval odds. Litecoin, which was given a 90% chance of SEC approval, is leading the gains with a 12% hike, reflecting its highest chance for ETF approval.
Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have recently released their rankings on the likelihood of several altcoin exchange-traded funds receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Following this development, Litecoin (LTC), ranked as the top contender for SEC approval, saw the biggest surge, rising 12% in the past 24 hours, according to crypto.news. Dogecoin (DOGE), with the second-highest odds, gained 5.7%, while Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP), which received lower approval probabilities, climbed 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively.
The rationale behind Seyffart and Balchunas’s ETF approval odds
As Balchunas noted earlier, Litecoin topped the list with a 90% chance because of its status as a Bitcoin fork, which the SEC views as a commodity. Given Litecoin’s similarities to Bitcoin, the analysts believe it could be classified under the same regulatory framework, improving its odds for ETF approval.
Dogecoin’s chances (75%), however, have surprised many. Despite it being a meme coin, Seyffart and Balchunas have given it a higher chance of approval than both Solana and XRP. Seyffart explained that this is because of the SEC’s evolving stance on crypto assets under Hester Peirce’s new Crypto Task Force.
Peirce’s task force is focused on clarifying the classification of crypto assets—whether they should be treated as securities or commodities. Seyffart notes that by the end of 2025, the SEC, through this task force, is expected to address some of the ongoing legal questions surrounding the regulatory treatment of cryptocurrencies. “The SEC & Commissioner Peirce’s Crypto task force will untangle some of the security vs commodity implications from lawsuits by the end of 2025,” he wrote.
If the SEC decides that certain crypto assets, like Dogecoin, should be classified as commodities (instead of securities), the regulatory burden on them would lighten. This shift could move their oversight from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which is generally seen as more lenient in its regulation of commodities. Because Dogecoin would likely fall under this commodity classification, its approval prospects are stronger.
However, Solana does not currently benefit from the same regulatory treatment as Bitcoin or Dogecoin, meaning it might face greater hurdles in receiving approval for an ETF (70% chance of approval).
Ripple’s situation is even more contentious as it’s still embroiled in a legal battle with the SEC, weakening the chances for an XRP ETF (65% chance of approval). The outcome of the lawsuit could impact the classification of XRP and its eligibility for an ETF.
